The House Majority PAC, the outside spending group linked to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, raised more than $36 million in September and nearly $55 million since July.
The PAC, which supports Democrats with television and digital advertising in key House races, has hauled in $134 million so far this campaign season, according to a spokesperson for the group. That is ahead of its pace in 2020, when it had amassed $125 million at the same point in the election cycle.
The PAC’s Republican counterpart, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has not yet released its campaign finance reports for the third quarter of 2022. On Monday, the fund announced that it was reserving an additional $14 million in television advertising for the fall, bringing its total for the election cycle to $190 million.
The fresh influx of money from Republicans included $700,000 in ads aimed at Oregon’s Fourth Congressional District, where the longtime incumbent Democrat, Representative Peter A. DeFazio, is retiring, and $2 million for Florida’s 27th District, held by Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican, along with additional spending in 13 districts held by Democrats.
The new figures come amid mixed signals for Democrats, who are working to cling to Ms. Pelosi’s paper-thin majority. President Biden’s approval ratings have improved since the early summer, as have gas prices, which remain in flux. Democratic voters appear to be energized after the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Independent election forecasters have also narrowed their predictions of the Republican Party’s expected victory in the House. Dave Wasserman, the House analyst for the Cook Political Report, wrote an article recently with the headline “G.O.P. Control No Longer a Foregone Conclusion,” and Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times, wrote on Friday that although he still thought a change in party control was likely, “the idea that Democrats can hold the House is not as ridiculous, implausible or far-fetched as it seemed before the Dobbs ruling overturned Roe v. Wade.”
In what Democrats said was a reflection of their changing fortunes, in late August, the House Majority PAC announced purchases in four cities within Republican-held districts: Albuquerque, Cincinnati and two California cities, Bakersfield and Fresno.
However, recent polls show Republicans with an edge on the so-called generic ballot, in which voters indicate which party they prefer in Congress. That could reflect a shift in the political winds as inflation continues to hit voters’ pocketbooks or could simply be a sign that partisan Republicans are coming home.
A Monmouth University poll published on Monday found that 47 percent of likely voters chose Republicans, while 44 percent preferred Democrats. Those figures represent a reversal from Monmouth’s August poll, when 50 percent of likely voters chose Democrats over Republicans, who were favored by just 43 percent of the electorate.
And in the latest Gallup poll, 44 percent of voters rated the Republican Party favorably, compared with 39 percent for the Democratic Party. In January 2021, Democrats held a 48-to-37 edge in the same survey.