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Midterm poll forecasts bleak outlook for Dems, trail GOP with groups they usually win

A new poll shows Republicans with an edge leading up to this year’s midterm elections, including among groups more traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party.

Asked which party they are likely to vote for in their district, 52% of Latino voters said they would choose a Republican compared to 39% who said their preference was for a Democrat, according to the results of a new NPR and Marist poll. Democrats also trail among voters under 45-years-old, with 50% saying they would choose a Republican compared to 40% who said they plan to vote for a Democrat.


Latinos have traditionally preferred to vote for Democrats, but recent data has shown the group has started to trend away from the party over the last few years. Younger voters have also traditionally trended towards Democrats, with 55% of those aged 30-49 supporting President Biden in 2020 and 59% of those aged 18-29 voting for Biden.

Republicans are also enjoying a lead among independent voters, with 45% saying they would vote for a Republican compared to 38% who say they would support a Democrat.

But both groups may help power the GOP to victory in 2022, with 47% of voters overall indicating they would choose a Republican candidate compared to 44% who said they would support a Democrat.

Democrats have historically outperformed Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, with this being the first time the GOP has led the poll since they won control of both the House and Senate in 2014. A lead of just a few points could spell trouble for Democrats, who now trail by three points six months before the elections.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer

President Biden’s approval rating also remains underwater, with 41% of voters saying they approve of the president’s job performance compared to 51% who disapprove. Of those that disapprove, 37% indicated they strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance.

Economic issues lead the way in steering voters towards Republicans, with 42% of voters indicating they believe the GOP would do a better job with the economy compared to 26% who believe Democrats are better equipped to handle the issue. Voters also favor Republicans when it comes to inflation, with 41% saying they trust the GOP more to control inflation compared to 20% who said Democrats would be better.

Preident Biden

Republicans also hold an edge in handling crime, national security, immigration, and gun rights.

The poll was conducted between April 19-26, surveying 1,377 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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