The short answer: Good for Republicans. And potentially very good for them.
The disparity in opportunity is clear when you pull out only the most competitive House contests.
The Crystal Ball rates seven Republican-held seats as “toss-ups” and another three as “lean Republican.” One GOP-held seat is listed as “lean Democratic.”
Democrats, by contrast, have 21 seats rated as “toss-ups” and 14 seats as “lean Democratic.” Plus, the party has eight seats categorized as “lean Republican” and three seats as “likely Republican.”
Do the math and you see that Democrats have roughly four times as many very vulnerable House seats as Republicans.
And the Crystal Ball is far from alone in its projections.
And like the Crystal Ball, Cook has only one Republican-held seat — Illinois’ 13th District — rated as “lean Democratic” or worse.
Now, it’s worth noting here that simply because a seat is rated as a toss-up (or worse) doesn’t mean it’s lost for the party that holds it. Campaigns and candidates matter — as does the political environment in which they are running.
But at least on the environment front, the news is not good for Democrats either.
The Point: Add it all up and Republicans have every reason to be confident that they will not only retake the House in November, but also have a comfortable margin with which to govern.