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2024 Watch: Half of Americans doubt Biden will run for re-election, according to new poll

He’s said a handful of times that he intends to run for re-election in 2024, but a new national poll indicates that roughly half of all Americans doubt that President Biden will seek a second term in the White House.

Fifty-two percent of those questioned in a Wall Street Journal survey released on Tuesday said they don’t think the president will launch a re-election campaign, with 29% saying they do expect Biden to seek re-election and 19% unsure.


Among Democrats, 51% said they think the president will run again, with 32% disagreeing and just over a quarter unsure.

Biden made history in November 2020 when he became the oldest person ever elected president. If he campaigns for re-election in 2024 and wins, Biden would be 82 at his second inaugural and 86 at the end of his second term.

Asked a year ago at the first formal news conference of his presidency about his 2024 plans, Biden said, “My answer is yes. I plan on running for re-election. That’s my expectation.” 


And he said in an interview with ABC News in December that “if I’m in the health I’m in now, if I’m in good health, then in fact, I would run again.”

Former President Donald Trump, at his 2017 inauguration, made history at age 70 as the oldest American sworn in as president. That record was shattered four years later by Biden.


Trump, for over a year, has repeatedly teased that he’ll run again for the White House in 2024. Most recently, he flirted with another president bid during a speech he delivered on Saturday at a rally in South Carolina. The former president turns 76 this June and if he seeks the presidency again and wins, he would be 78 at the time of his second inauguration.

Former President Donald Trump arrives at a rally, Saturday, March 12, 2022, in Florence, South Carolina.

The Wall Street Journal poll indicates that 49% of Americans expect Trump to run a third time for the presidency, with 27% disagreeing and just under a quarter unsure. Among Republicans, six in 10 said Trump will run again for the White House in 2024.

Voters were split at 45% in a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, when asked who they would vote for in 2024, according to numbers from the Wall Street Journal poll that were released on Friday. The results on the 2024 matchup question remain unchanged from the Journal’s previous poll conducted in November. 

The latest Wall Street Journal poll was conducted March 2-7, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

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